mondrian’s neon fantod

This is old. It’s here to fill space. Kinda like Dick Cheney.

So, Bill James has a thing called the Defensive Spectrum. In short, it looks like this:

[ - - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C - - ]

with the basic premise that positions at the right end of the spectrum are more difficult than the positions at the left end of the spectrum. Players can generally move from right to left along the specturm successfully during their careers.

There are essentially two “laws” of the Defensive Spectrum, which amount to:

1. True shortage of talent almost never occurs at the left end of the defensive spectrum.
2. Rightward shifts along the defensive spectrum almost never work.

Now, there are a couple of fantasy baseball concerns that can be addressed with this stuff^*. The first is that maybe this explains why there are so many power hitters at first base and in the outfield and yet so few ass-kicking middle infielders and catchers. But perhaps the more important consideration is that maybe this theory can help you pick your players based on where they are in their careers vs. where they are in the spectrum. And for that, we finally get to my dear friend and personal Elvis₂, Craig Biggio.

Craig began his career way back in 1988, as a catcher – the hardest position in baseball, at least according to the Defensive Spectrum. Comrade Biggio excelled behind the dish, where he was an All-Star in ’91. Then, in 1992, he moved to second base (a couple of positions to the left) where he was a gold glove winner and an All-Star from 1994-1997. Moves to the left appear to work, indeed.

In 2003 the Astros signed Jeff Kent to play 2B, and Biggio moved down the Defensive Spectrum again, to center field. Then, with the Astros’ (temporary) acquisition of Carlos Beltran on 2004 Biggio moved even further to the left (literally and figuratively) to play left field. Neither of these moves lead to the type of success Biggio experienced in his first leftward shift, but then again they took place 15 and 16 years into his career. A renaissance was probably unlikely regardless of position change.

But now, in the post-Beltran era, Biggio is being called upon to move back to the right, to play center field again. Heck, there’s even been some chatter about him returning to second base now that Kent is also gone. And this is when the laws of the Defensive Spectrum start sounding the klaxons. “Rightward shifts along the defensive spectrum almost never work!” we are told. The numbers support this theory, at least in Bill James’ experience (and who has more experience, anyway?). It’s worth noting, though, that the line is “almost never work.” Only time will tell if Biggio follows the generalization posited by James.

So what does this mean for you, the saber-headed number-crunching fantasy manager? Well, it could mean that you don’t want to draft Craig Biggio. It could also mean that a whole bunch of people will think along these lines and won’t draft the elder Killer B, leaving you to snag him as a sleeper later in the draft. But does it tell us that Biggio is a bad draft choice, period? Some folks would probably say yes. But I say no, it’s not definitive. However, this is a good example of things to think about when evaluating players for your draft. Are they moving positions this year? And if so, does James’ 2nd Law of Defensive Spectronomics (my phrase, forgive me) have good or bad things to say about the move?

^* FYI – all this Bill James stuff is pulled from the Bill James Primer found at The Baseball Archive. There’s more there, too, if this kind of Sabermetrics stuff interests you.